Palm Oil Alert: Mr GM Teoh

Dear Friends & Associates,

Technical price outlook for the BMD Crude Palm Oil futures remained constructive on Friday’s close and signalled that the immediate term trend would continue to head north.

The trend-tracker GMT2/5 indicator gave the buy-signal on 3rd Feb and remained in bullish divergence as at Friday’s close. Please see chart.

Its successful punch above the minor resistance of RM3,200 on Friday shows that the market has the positive momentum to advance.

An immediate technical hurdle now stands at the RM3,250-RM3,280 levels. A successful close above these levels next week would signal the resumption of the upward rally and set the stage for a test of its next technical upside-target at around the RM3,300-RM3,350. I would look to trade on the long-side in the event of any technical adjustments or correction on account of long-liquidation profit-taking activities.

BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures

The Indonesian Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) Crude Palm Oil futures turned positive on 3rd Feb with the triggering of the GMT2/3 crossover signal and surged strongly to establish fresh nine-month high on Friday’s close.

Overhead resistance at IR9,250 and IR9,400 were easily vaulted during the run-up last week. This indicates that the technical momentum of the market is firm.

As at Friday’s close, the trend-tracker GMT2/5 stayed in bullish divergence and suggested that the 11-day upward rally is not completed and has the underlying strength to advance and make fresh highs for 2012.

Immediate term upside target is now seen at IR9,800-IR9,950 levels. Any price retracements in the coming week would be good opportunity for entering long-position.

My Indonesian friends & associates, you can still attend the Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials to be held in Medan on 20th-21st Feb and Jakarta on 23rd -24th Feb 2012, by registering today and make payment on the day of the tutorials.

NOTE:
For your convenience, the Kuala Lumpur tutorial will be held immediately after the POC2012 Conference.
Register within the next 3 days to continue to enjoy Early Bird rates

For more information, please click here www.palmoil-mtt.com

Thanks very much and we look forward to seeing you in Medan & Jakarta.

Best Regards,

G.M.Teoh
Chief Coach, Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials

Message from Mr GM Teoh

Dear Friends & Associates,

It’s the beginning of the new Water Dragon Year and I would like to take this opportunity to share my observations and thoughts with you on the Palm Oil market.

Palm Oil markets have proven to be a trending market. If you can identify the trend correctly and trade the trend, financial success is more than guaranteed. Trend identification can benefit both hedgers and investors.

For example, in 2011, there were only a handful of distinct trends in the palm oil market as illustrated in the price chart below. Throughout the 12 months of 2011, we have 8 clear signals to either go long or short.

Timing your trades, i.e, your entry points and exits, are also crucial. Both successful trend analysis and timing can be mastered by anyone with the drive to succeed.

The current size of the BMD Crude Palm Oil Futures market is 3.25 million tons of Crude Palm Oil. A hundred ringgit move in either direction would mean that RM325 million (USD110 million) would be changing hands. Big Money in markets is made by trading the direction and duration as define by the trend.

The majority of palm oil traders (about 90%) based their trading decisions on fundamental news and analysis with more than 80% of them being wrong all the time. This is mainly due to the markets moving ahead of the news release or access. Trading markets based on technical analysis and trend identification is by far more successful.
At the upcoming Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials (schedule as shown below), we shall show you how to trade the market successfully, how to develop a trading edge and how to enjoy 80% winning trades!

PALM OIL MASTER TRADER TUTORIALS: Q1 SCHEDULE
• Medan on 20 & 21 February 2012 (Monday & Tuesday)
• Jakarta on 23 & 24 February, 2012 (Thursday & Friday)
• Kuala Lumpur on 8 & 9 March 2012 (Thursday & Friday)

NOTE:
For your convenience, the Kuala Lumpur tutorial will be held immediately after the POC2012 Conference.
Register within the next 3 days to continue to enjoy Early Bird rates.

WISHING YOU SUCCESS IN 2012!

Warmest Regards,

GM Teoh
(Chief Coach-Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials)

Indonesian Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Prices

Dear Friends & Associates,

The Indonesian & Malaysian crude palm oil futures prices remained lacklustre in January. The BMD crude palm oil futures prices fluctuated within a narrow RM50 trading band for most of the sessions.

The GMT2/5 trend tracker gave the sell-signal on Jan 12th and that was followed by two straight downward sessions with the market testing its minor-support levels near the RM3,100.

This was followed by a knee-jerk technical rebound that took the market back above the RM3,150 level. Prices then entered into congestion trading pattern before closing last Friday slightly below RM3,150 area.

Based on the daily GMT2/5 signal, the immediate term market is still in negative divergence and continues to suggest that the market could soften slightly.

Strictly from a technical point of view, the March futures is likely to find support around the RM3,120-RM3,100 levels. The overall sentiment of the market could turn negative in the event of a break below this important immediate term chart-support. (see chart).

So far the impact of La Nina has faded. In February, we look to the Iran-issue, direction of crude oil prices, EU development and soyoil prices for fresh impetus. Incidentally, the CME soyoil futures prices are in bullish mode with the triggering of the GMT2/5 buy-signal on January 23rd. The bullish signal remained intact as at Friday’s close and points to more upside trading. (see SBO chart).

The Indonesian crude palm oil futures traded at the ICDX prices also congested in sideways trading after a round of early weakness and recovered to trade within the IR9,250 to IR 9,100 levels and closed the week at the lower end of this trading band.

The GMT2/5 trend-tracker signal turned negative on January 12th and remained in bearish divergence on Friday’s close, calling for further weakness for the immediate term.

The ICDX crude palm oil futures has an immediate technical support at the IR9,100-RM9,050 levels. The market is likely to enter into an upward recovery if this immediate term technical-support is not violated in the coming sessions. Immediate overhead resistance is now stands at the IR9,200-RM9,250 levels and is expected to be re-visited in the event of an upward adjustment.

I look forward to meet you at the Indonesian & Malaysian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials in February and March 2012.

The Indonesian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials (MTT) would be held in Medan on 20th & 21st, February and in Jakarta on 23rd & 24th, February, 2012. The Malaysian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials (MTT) would be held in Kuala Lumpur on 8th & 9th March, 2012. (Immediately after the POC 2012)

For registration and details kindly go to www.palmoil-mtt.com/register-now

Warmest Regards,
G.M.Teoh
(Chief Coach-Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials)