Dear Friends & Associates,
The Indonesian & Malaysian crude palm oil futures prices remained lacklustre in January. The BMD crude palm oil futures prices fluctuated within a narrow RM50 trading band for most of the sessions.
The GMT2/5 trend tracker gave the sell-signal on Jan 12th and that was followed by two straight downward sessions with the market testing its minor-support levels near the RM3,100.
This was followed by a knee-jerk technical rebound that took the market back above the RM3,150 level. Prices then entered into congestion trading pattern before closing last Friday slightly below RM3,150 area.
Based on the daily GMT2/5 signal, the immediate term market is still in negative divergence and continues to suggest that the market could soften slightly.
Strictly from a technical point of view, the March futures is likely to find support around the RM3,120-RM3,100 levels. The overall sentiment of the market could turn negative in the event of a break below this important immediate term chart-support. (see chart).
So far the impact of La Nina has faded. In February, we look to the Iran-issue, direction of crude oil prices, EU development and soyoil prices for fresh impetus. Incidentally, the CME soyoil futures prices are in bullish mode with the triggering of the GMT2/5 buy-signal on January 23rd. The bullish signal remained intact as at Friday’s close and points to more upside trading. (see SBO chart).
The Indonesian crude palm oil futures traded at the ICDX prices also congested in sideways trading after a round of early weakness and recovered to trade within the IR9,250 to IR 9,100 levels and closed the week at the lower end of this trading band.
The GMT2/5 trend-tracker signal turned negative on January 12th and remained in bearish divergence on Friday’s close, calling for further weakness for the immediate term.
The ICDX crude palm oil futures has an immediate technical support at the IR9,100-RM9,050 levels. The market is likely to enter into an upward recovery if this immediate term technical-support is not violated in the coming sessions. Immediate overhead resistance is now stands at the IR9,200-RM9,250 levels and is expected to be re-visited in the event of an upward adjustment.
I look forward to meet you at the Indonesian & Malaysian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials in February and March 2012.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials (MTT) would be held in Medan on 20th & 21st, February and in Jakarta on 23rd & 24th, February, 2012. The Malaysian Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials (MTT) would be held in Kuala Lumpur on 8th & 9th March, 2012. (Immediately after the POC 2012)
For registration and details kindly go to www.palmoil-mtt.com/register-now
(Chief Coach-Palm Oil Master Trader Tutorials)