Palm Oil Price Outlook 2015

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6th  FEB, 2015

Dear Friends & Associates,

The Year of the Horse (2014) was indeed a challenging year for the palm oil industry.

As thousands of horses gallop away on February 19th, a flock of goats, with their heads held high, would usher in the new spring for the Chinese New Year of the Goat. We hope that the sun does not rise from the West in 2015! The Goat promises to bring a better time for us all! Wishing you a Happy & Prosperous Chinese New Year.

Over the last six weeks, CPO prices rallied and then gave back all it gains immediately. Prices initially advanced from a low of RM2,100 in mid-December, 2014 and hit a high of RM2,397 on 8th January,2015. Prices failed to hold above the RM2,350 resulting in the market heading south and returning all of its earlier excessive gains and hit a decline-low of RM2,106 on 30th January, 2015. The April futures then rebounded strongly on strong short-covering and fresh speculative interests and settled Thursday (5th Feb,2015)  with hefty gains at RM2,310.

How did our daily G.M.Teoh Trend-Tracker signals (GMT-T.T) react to the price movements during the course of the bullish and bearish rallies?

On 19th December, 2014, the GMT-TT gave the buy-signal around the RM2,150 level and that resulted in some strong upward momentum with the bullish rally peaking at RM2,397 on 8th January, 2015.

Following the strong upward move, the GMT-TT signal triggered the sell-signal around the RM2,350 level on 16th January, 2015. This bearish sell-signal saw prices declining to a low of RM2,106 on 30th Jan, 2015.

On 4th February, 2015, the daily GMT-TT again gave the buy-signal at close. Prices rallied strongly on 5th February and as at the close the GMT-TT continues to show that the immediate term price trend is positive. (please see chart for the GMT-TT trading signals).

BMD CRUDE PALM OIL – APRIL, 2015 Futures

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Strictly from a technical point of view, the immediate-term underlying strength of the market is still constructive. An immediate overhead price-resistance now stands at the RM2,350-RM2,380. The upward trend or cycle would expand if these technical hurdles are successfully vaulted with the prospects of April futures trading above the RM2.400 levels in the near-term.

The immediate term price-support levels are now adjusted higher to RM2,250-RM2,200. The chart-picture would turn negative should these supports be violated.

However, we would continue to use our reliable GMT-TT to provide us indication of changes in the market trend.

Outside-factors that could influence CPO prices in the coming days.

Apart from the changing fundamentals of palm oil; crude oil prices would continue to hold centre-court in days ahead. The soyoil price trend and the Malaysian Ringgit are set to have some strong influence on CPO price direction in the very near term.

M’SIAN MONTHLY CPO OUTPUT,EXPORTS,STOCKS & PRICE

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CME SBO FUTURES MCH 2015

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The CBOT soyoil futures are now in upward trend following a sharp decline that took the market briefly below the 29.50 U.S. cents level some five trading days ago. Based on the GMT-T.T. the market has entered into a rebound phase and could re-visit it’s next up-side target at the 32.00 U.S. cents. The GMT-TT triggered the buy-signal on 4th February.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL- MARCH 2015

The NYMEX crude oil futures prices rebounded after a prolonged downward trend. The GMT-T.T. gave the buy-signal toward the end of January and then entered into negative convergence during yesterday’s close. Based on the GMT-T.T. crude oil futures is now in a negative phase and may drift lower in the immediate term to re-test its decline-lows and immediate chart support at the USD 45 level.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES

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MALAYSIAN RINGGIT-USD

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The ringgit depreciation against the USD appears to have hit a temporary-bottom. The GMT-T.T. entered into a strong negative convergence on Thursday’s close and signalled that the downward pressure on the ringgit may be over for the immediate term. Prospects of the ringgit moving into a recovery phase is very likely ow. Palm products priced in USD would be impacted by such a move.

Kindly be inform that the next Master Trader Tutorial (Palm Oil) would be held in Kuala Lumpur on 27th & 28th February, 2015. (Immediately before the POC2015 Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference in Kuala Lumpur). New students are welcome.

Past students who wish to do a re-attendance tutorial are also welcome. A special fee would apply.

Further information and registration can be obtain from our website: http://www.palmoil-mtt.com

Profitably Yours,

G.M.Teoh
gmteohgm@gmail.com
hp 012 2688121